Oscars

Final Oscar Nomination Predictions

January 21, 2018
6 min read

2017 has been very different from other years when it comes to the Oscars race. While in most other years, we have a frontrunner by the month of December (sometimes earlier), this year we had to wait and wait for the frontrunner to emerge. And here we are in January, we are still not sure which film is going to win the Best Picture. That certainly makes things interesting for the next few weeks.

If there is one film that has shown consistently in all the guilds and critics awards, it is ‘The Shape of Water’. It has turned out to be a surprise frontrunner, if you want to call it that. Though, I would still not place my bets on it to win Best Picture, I am very confident that it will emerge as the movie with most nomination on Tuesday — as many as 14. ‘Dunkirk’, the early favorite, has been pushed behind by the emergence of ‘The Shape of Water’ will have something to cheer about on Tuesday when it should receive the second most number of nominations — as many as 9.

Despite the fact that ‘The Shape of Water’ and ‘Dunkirk’ will be the two most nominated films this year, the real race to win Best Picture is between ‘Lady Bird’ and ‘Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri’ (with ‘Get Out’ having an outside shot).

Here is a fun fact. In the last 5 years, only once the film with most nominations has gone on to win Best Picture (‘Birdman’). Last year, ‘La La Land’ lost Best Picture to ‘Moonlight’ despite 14 Oscar nominations. This year again, the trend in all likelihood will continue.

Anyway, as you all know, we here at The Cinemaholic do our best to bring to you the most accurate Oscar predictions. (We can officially claim to be most accurate predictors on internet considering we have consistently and correctly predicted at least 85 nominees out of 106/107 in 21 main categories for the past three years — a feat no publication, other than us, can claim to make). Last year we broke all records by predicting 94 nominees correctly. But each year is different. This year is particularly difficult.

At this point, I would like to extend my thanks to Hollywood Elsewhere and Awards Daily, websites that I trust when it comes to getting a sense of the pulse of the industry during the awards season. As far as making Oscar predictions is concerned, I trust my gut instinct and common sense more than anything else.

With that said, take your time to go through the predictions of all the 21 categories (we don’t predict the 3 shorts categories). It is a long list and will need some time to go through one by one. You can also come back, after the nominations are announced, to check how many correct predictions we made. Oscar nominations announcement will happen on Tuesday, 23rd January.

Best Picture

Call Me by Your Name
Dunkirk
The Florida Project
Get Out
I, Tonya
Lady Bird
The Post
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Potential Surprise: Darkest Hour

Best Director

Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water
Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird
Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Christopher Nolan, Dunkirk
Jordan Peele, Get Out

Potential Surprise: Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name

Best Actor

Timothée Chalamet, Call Me by Your Name
Daniel Day-Lewis, Phantom Thread
James Franco, The Disaster Artist
Daniel Kaluuya, Get Out
Gary Oldman, Darkest Hour

Potential Surprise: Tom Hanks, The Post

Best Actress

Sally Hawkins, The Shape of Water
Frances McDormand, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Margot Robbie, I, Tonya
Saoirse Ronan, Lady Bird
Meryl Streep, The Post

Potential Surprise: Jessica Chastain, Molly’s Game

Best Supporting Actor

Willem Dafoe, The Florida Project
Armie Hammer, Call Me by Your Name
Richard Jenkins, The Shape of Water
Woody Harrelson, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
Sam Rockwell, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Potential Surprise: Christopher Plummer, All the Money in the World

Best Supporting Actress

Mary J. Blige, Mudbound
Holly Hunter, The Big Sick
Allison Janney, I, Tonya
Laurie Metcalf, Lady Bird
Octavia Spencer, The Shape of Water

Potential Surprise: Lesley Manville, Phantom Thread

Best Original Screenplay

Get Out
Lady Bird
I, Tonya
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Potential Surprise: Phantom Thread

Best Adapted Screenplay

Call Me by Your Name
The Disaster Artist
Molly’s Game
Mudbound
Logan

Potential Surprise: Wonder Woman

Best Cinematography

Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
Darkest Hour
Mudbound

The Shape of Water

Potential Surprise: Call Me by Your Name 

Best Film Editing

Baby Driver
Dunkirk
Get Out
The Shape of Water
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Potential Surprise: I, Tonya

Best Costume Design

Beauty and the Beast
The Greatest Showman
Darkest Hour  
Phantom Thread
The Shape of Water

Potential Surprise: Murder on the Orient Express

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Darkest Hour
I, Tonya
Wonder

Potential Surprise: Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2

Best Production Design

Beauty and the Beast
Blade Runner 2049
Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water

Potential Surprise: The Post

Best Original Score

Darkest Hour
Dunkirk
Phantom Thread
The Post

The Shape of Water

Potential Surprise: Blade Runner 2049

Best Original Song

“Evermore,” Beauty and the Beast
“Mystery of Love,” Call Me by Your Name
“Remember Me,” Coco
“This Is Me,” The Greatest Showman
“Stand Up for Something”, Marshall

Potential Surprise: “I Don’t Wanna Live Forever”, Fifty Shades Darker

Best Sound Editing

Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Potential Surprise: Wonder Woman

Best Sound Mixing

Baby Driver
Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Potential Surprise: The Greatest Showman

Best Visual Effects

Blade Runner 2049
Dunkirk
The Shape of Water
Star Wars: The Last Jedi
War for the Planet of the Apes

Potential Surprise: Okja

Best Animated Feature

The Boss Baby
The Breadwinner
Coco
Loving Vincent
The Lego Batman Movie

Potential Surprise: Ferdinand

Best Foreign Film

A Fantastic Woman
Foxtrot
In the Fade
Loveless
The Square

Potential Surprise: The Insult

Best Documentary Feature

City of Ghosts
Faces Places
Icarus
Strong Island
Jane

Potential Surprise: Last Men in Aleppo


Final Tally

The Shape of Water: 14 nominations
Dunkirk: 9 nominations
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri: 7 nominations
Darkest Hour: 6 nominations
Lady Bird: 5 nominations
Get Out: 5 nominations

I, Tonya: 5 nominations
Call Me by Your Name: 5 nominations

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