Avengers Endgame: Box Office Prediction and Budget Analysis

As I have already stated before, ‘Avengers: Endgame’ has duped its predecessor to become THE cinematic event of this decade, with hype levels through the roof, and the sky even. Having recently dropped a trailer that sent jitters through my body through the sheer intensity of it, and the feelings of a decade old universe and its heroes, even half of them, having come a long way, ‘Endgame’ just shot to my number one film to watch all year, at least for now, and that is something coming from a lifelong DC fan. To give you an idea of the hype, I will have you consider this: Fandango and AMC theatre’s sites crashed almost as soon as the pre-bookings opened and remained such for a majority of the day, being unable to handle the large amount of traffic that swept in following the announcement. This hasn’t happened for the first time, but reportedly, some of the lucky few who have been able to acquire the ‘Endgame’ tickets put them up for sale on EBay for more than $500! Now that is something, if not just remarkable business acumen.

To be able to fairly predict the box office success and cume of ‘Endgame’ — because I frankly see it no other way — we must consider the closest yardstick we have: its prequel ‘Infinity War’, the first film in the MCU to gross more than $2 Billion, and only the fourth film ever to do that, and then setting it against other movies that have achieved that benchmark. While I will hold off my final box office prediction until the end of the analysis, we all know where the cash counter will stop. The producers at MCU and basically everyone involved with the film are taking home truckloads of money, I’ll give you that. Read on to find out as I try to decode the hype, costs and box office numbers for probably the most awaited movie this year, ‘Avengers: Endgame’, the cinematic conclusion to a decade of superhero storytelling.

Hype

Last I remember, people were almost equally hyped for ‘Infinity War’, and the film saw similar ticketing website crashes and humungous web traffic on these portals when the pre-booking opened, so much so that the tickets went as soon as they arrived. Its pre-bookings outsold any other movie in history, and while the ticketing sales for ‘Endgame’ have only just began, it would be meaningful to predict that it is more or less on the same path.

However, when it comes to the relative hype between the two films, it is going to be a very interesting thing to analyse. The trailer for ‘Infinity War’ easily became the most viewed trailer on the planet within 24 hours, a feat surpassed by ‘Endgame’ by at least 40 million, with the first official trailer for ‘Endgame’ being the single most watched trailer in the history of the world. It is hard to imagine any forthcoming movie to even come close to achieving the feat, except maybe ‘Star Wars: Chapter IX’, which is testament to the fan base the franchise has built over the years, and the kind of pre-release the last two ‘Avengers’ films have been able to generate.

While numbers speak for themselves, there is a very significant reason why the anticipation for ‘Endgame’ is out-scaling its prequel, and that would be intrigue. The last few minutes of ‘Infinity War’ left us in a farrago of questions, the answers to which seem to be in ‘Endgame’. Of the very few people who skipped watching ‘Infiniity War’ at the theatre have now joined the ranks of fans who have been waiting a year for the re-formed Avengers to take on Thanos, both of whom seem to be ready to smash the opening day records for the film.

While ‘Infinity War’ was the beginning of the end, being the global event that brought together close to thirty heroes introduced over a course of close to twenty films, half of whom are lost any way, its sequel is quite literally the end, bringing to culmination the battle that conspired in ‘Infinity War’, and revealing the fate of many of our beloved superheroes. This is exactly why more people watched the trailer, and this is also exactly why ‘Endgame’ will probably see much greater footfalls than ‘Infinity War’, with even the trailers revealing precious little about the film. For now, the conclusion would be that the relative hype for ‘Endgame’ is significantly higher than its predecessors, which should also squarely translate to greater opening numbers for the film.

Avengers Endgame Budget: How Much Did it Cost to Make?

‘Infinity War’ proved to be among the costliest movies ever made. When it comes to production costs, or quite simply, the costs of making a film, the factors involved are too complex for the scope of this article. However, let me break it down for you in the case of ‘Infinity War’, and why it incurred production costs between $315-$400 million, which is a sizeable sum and a huge investment, multiplying the responsibility on the film to break even, something it later accomplished with relative ease.

The costs incurred by a first tier Hollywood production such as IW here would include, of course, the filmmaking crew, its sizeable cast, bringing together at least six A-listers, close to twenty well-known actors and more than a hundred total actors for the film, the money spent extensively on special effects and VFX, including converting to 3D in post-production, and specialised equipment, like the IMAX Arra cameras used to shoot the entirety of both films, making them the only Hollywood movies to be fully shot in that format, and ofcourse, the marketing costs, that are often unrevealed in exactment and are over and above the mentioned costs.

Well, just looking at the categories I mentioned above, you should have a fair idea why ‘Infinity War’ cost as much to make as it did. Hell, RDJ alone got paid close $50 Million for ‘Infinity War’, an eighth of the total budget. All factors considered, I predict ‘Endgame’ to land somewhere close to the same figure in terms of production costs, its higher runtime costs being subset by the relatively fewer actors it has compared to ‘Infinity War’, at least for a substantial amount of the film.

How Much Money Will Avengers Endgame Make at the Box Office?

While hype can guarantee pretty strong opening numbers for any film, the same may not be taken as a parameter for the legs on a film, meaning how long the film may last at the box office. Nothing can guarantee that, except for quality of the final film, an overwhelming word of mouth and its rewatch value, which should obviously be on the positive side. As part of modern superhero history, none perhaps is a better example of the same case as ‘Batman V Superman: Dawn of Justice’, that opened to huge numbers over the weekend, but owing to poor critical reception, fell by close to 75% in its second weekend, and gave out within a few weeks after its release, settling for a dismal worldwide box office score.

The same however cannot be said for ‘Infinity War’ that opened to a staggering $650 Million weekend gross, and lasted well into its third month to bring up its worldwide total to cross $2 Billion in revenue. While I fully expect ‘Avengers: Endgame’ to take the worldwide markets by storm in its opening weekends having already established the hype for the film, its predicted numbers continually being revised in the upwards directions as the release date approaches, its worldwide lifetime collections will depend on the factors stated above. Given Marvel’s immense platinum reputation and that it is being helmed by among the most talented people in the MCU roster, coupled with the fact that ‘Endgame’ was shot and conceived as a direct continuation to ‘Infinity War’ which we all can agree was great, ‘Endgame’ seems to have some solid legs that will last out the test of time and prove immensely helpful in amassing a worldwide fortune for Marvel.

Another factor that heavily influences the worldwide collection of popular and/or franchise films is its collection in foreign territories. To give you an idea of the same, take this for instance: ‘Infinity War’ made twice as much in foreign territories as it did in the United States, and that can squarely be attributed to the popularity of these characters and Marvel’s reputation globally, and the multi star cast this film assembled on-screen for the first time. Over the years, Middle and South East Asia have emerged as some of the most alluring markets for Hollywood releases, contributing a significant chunk of their worldwide income, especially China, where the market for these movies is huge.

Last year’s ‘Aquaman’ tapped into that effectively and has seemingly set a precedent for future movies, who seem to be quickly following suit. DC’s ‘Aquaman’ was a billion dollar grosser too, but its fate was sealed by the magnanimity of its collections in the Chinese market alone, where the film opened at least two weeks prior to the US theatrical release. As a result, the film had $300 million to its name even before it opened in its home territory. While ‘infinity War’ opened in China a week after it did in the US, ‘Endgame’ seems to be acting on the precedent epitomised by ‘Aquaman’, and would be releasing a week ahead instead of its US release. That alone should cement its position among this year’s highest grossers. In India too, ‘Avengers: Infinity War’ is the highest grossing Hollywood movie ever, and I fully expect ‘Endgame’ to topple that, with major booking websites displaying the film’s title as the most searched one for months.

Final Word

With the analytical part of it now complete, I can say that there never was any doubt that ‘Endgame’ would be shattering records after records, creating new ones in the process, even as we inch closer to its release. Given the current hype, its actual release should usher in a storm at the ticket windows, one that fans would happily be taken by. With all the listed boxes that ‘Endgame’ checks with effortless ease, I predict its worldwide weekend box office to be anything northward of $700 million (it is tracking to make around $225-250 million in the US alone) breaking the current highest record held by ‘Infinity War’. It will also be the quickest movie to rake in $1 Billion at the world box office, possibly in ten days, beating its predecessor at its own game, and if the odds are completely ridiculous, maybe even within a week. I do not for one second expect that its 3-hour runtime will have any impact whatsoever on the number of people who will gear up to watch the film.

That being said, and after predicting stellar opening numbers for ‘Endgame’, it could quite possibly be the film to finally dethrone James Cameron’s ‘Titanic’ and ‘Star Wars: The Force Awakens’ to become the second highest grossing film of all time globally. Yes, you read that right. Given the massive hysteria surrounding the film, I expect its worldwide total at the end of its run to settle at $2.5 Billion. All we have to do now, is wait for April 26 with bated breaths. Until then, let me just resume my rewatching of ‘Infinity War’. The snappening awaits.

Read More in Explainers: How Long Does it Take to Make a Movie?

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