Oscars

The Cinemaholic Predicted a Record 91 Nominations Correctly. Here’s What We Got Wrong.

January 24, 2017
4 min read

As many of you already know that we here at The Cinemaholic take pride in what we do. So, making a claim of being the most accurate Oscar predictor on internet isn’t about thumping our chests at all; it is about being the best at what we do. And time and again, we have proven that our claim is based on facts — and not random declarations. This year, yet again, we were the best. In fact, we encourage you to visit major publications like The Hollywood Reporter (read their predictions here), Entertainment Weekly (read their predictions here) and Vulture (read their predictions here) and see for yourself how did we fare against them. Or you can even visit Gold Derby where all the major so-called Oscar experts make their predictions. And tell us what you find. Our predictions are here (or you can read them below).

To get 91 out of 107 predictions right I spent hours researching previous nominations and precursor awards like BAFTA and Golden Globes. I guess that’s what everybody else who predicts Oscar does. But the difference is that I also try to identify patterns — both current and past — to finally come with what I feel is my best guess. At least that’s my secret of being the most accurate Oscar predictor on internet.

Anyway, enough of back-patting. Let’s get down to  some introspection. It is true that we got 91 predictions right — which is six better than what we did last year. The other way of looking at it is that we got 16 predictions wrong. It is obviously impossible to achieve perfection in what ultimately is a guessing game but I strive to get better every time I do these predictions. Therefore, here are the 16 nominees we got wrong (the incorrect predictions are mentioned in red).

Read More: ‘La La Land’ Will Win Best Picture. Here’s Why.

Best Picture 

Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

Best Director

Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
David Mackenzie, Hell or High Water (Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge)
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

Best Actor

Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Denzel Washington, Fences
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic

Best Actress

Amy Adams, Arrival (Isabelle Hubbert, Elle)
Annette Bening, 20th Century Women (Ruth Negga, Loving)
Emma Stone, La La Land
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Best Supporting Actor

Dev Patel, Lion
Hugh Grant, Florence Foster Jenkins (Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals)
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water 
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Best Supporting Actress

Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Viola Davis, Fences

Best Original Screenplay

Captain Fantastic (20th Century Women)
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea

Best Adapted Screenplay

Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

Best Cinematography

Arrival
La La Land

Lion
Moonlight
Silence

Best Editing

Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land

Manchester by the Sea (Hell or High Water)
Moonlight

Best Costume Design

The Dressmaker (Allied)
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

A Man Called Ove
Florence Foster Jenkins (Suicide Squad)
Star Trek Beyond

Best Production Design

Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
Jackie (Passengers)
La La Land

Best Original Score

Jackie
La La Land
Lion

Moonlight
Nocturnal Animals (Passengers)

Best Original Song

“Audition,” La La Land
“Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls
“City of Stars,” La La Land
“How Far I’ll Go,” Moana
“Runnin’,” Hidden Figures (“The Empty Chair”, Jim: The James Foley Story)

Best Sound Editing

Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story (La La Land)

Sully

Best Sound Mixing

Arrival
Deepwater Horizon (13 Hours)
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Visual Effects

Arrival (Kubo and the Two Strings)
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Best Animated Feature

Kubo and the Two Strings
My Life As a Zucchini
Moana

The Red Turtle
Zootopia

Best Foreign Film

A Man Called Ove
Land of Mine
Tanna
Toni Erdmann 

The Salesman

Best Documentary Feature

13th
Cameraperson (Fire at Sea)
I Am Not Your Negro
O.J.: Made in America

Weiner (Life, Animated)

Read More: ‘La La Land’ Will Win Best Picture. Here’s Why.

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