Oscars

Final 2017 Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win and Who Should Win

February 25, 2017
6 min read

Anyone who follows The Cinemholic knows how much we love doing this. And believe it or not, personally, I enjoy making the Oscar predictions more than the Oscar ceremony itself. There’s a famous saying that goes “The pleasure is in the journey and not in the destination”. That’s exactly true in this case; I enjoy the journey of one year of anticipation, agony and pleasure more than the three hours of mostly dull celebration. In any case, by the time the BIG night finally arrives, we already know three-fourth (or more) of the winners. At least if you follow The Cinemaholic you definitely know. (We not very long ago made a record of sorts by predicting 91 out of 108 Oscar nominations correctly.)

This year hasn’t been a particularly interesting year in terms of Oscar race. A part of me is extremely glad that my favorite film of the year is going to win, but then there’s another part of me that is disappointed at how one-sided the whole race has been (despite the fact that six months back I predicted that this would happen). Yes, ‘La La Land’ has been a steamroller all season and it will continue being so on the Oscar night. Basically, it’s ‘La La Land’ vs The Rest. There are only three categories (check below) where the race is extremely tight and can go either in La La Land’s favor or against it. And then there’s Best Actor, which is just impossible to know which way will it go. With that said, let’s directly jump into action:

Best Picture

Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight

Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Moonlight
Should Win: La La Land

Commentary: There was a lot written against La La Land once it started emerging as the frontrunner. But nothing deterred it from its path. It has been the frontrunner to win since September. It still is the frontrunner.

Best Director

Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea

Will Win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Could Win: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Should Win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land

Best Actor

Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Denzel Washington, Fences
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic

Will Win: Denzel Washington, Fences
Could Win: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Should Win: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Commentary: It is 50-50. As much as I want Casey to win, instinctively I am leaning towards Denzel. Very tight!

Best Actress

Ruth Negga, Loving
Isabelle Hubbert, Elle
Emma Stone, La La Land
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins

Will Win: Emma Stone, La La Land
Could Win: Isabelle Hubbert, Elle 
Should Win: Isabelle Hubbert, Elle 

Best Supporting Actor

Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight

Will Win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Could Win: Dev Patel, Lion
Should Win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight 

Best Supporting Actress

Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Viola Davis, Fences

Will Win: Viola Davis, Fences
Could Win: Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Should Win: Naomie Harris, Moonlight

Best Original Screenplay

20th Century Women
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea

Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Manchester by the Sea
Should Win: Manchester by the Sea

Commentary: This is a tough one. Initially, I wanted to go with Manchester by the Sea, but I don’t think it has gathered a lot of steam. Yes, it was one of three favorites that emerged out of the awards season, but still I think La La Land might nudge past it. Keep an eye on this award. If La La Land wins this, it will end the night with at least 10 awards — if not more.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight

Will Win: Moonlight
Could Win: Lion
Should Win: Arrival

Best Cinematography

Arrival
La La Land

Lion
Moonlight
Silence

Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Lion
Should Win: La La Land

Best Editing

Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land

Hell or High Water
Moonlight

Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Arrival
Should Win: La La Land

Best Costume Design

Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins

Jackie
La La Land

Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Jackie
Should Win: Jackie

Commentary: I know many are predicting Jackie to win here, but my logic to pick La La Land is very simple. I think the anti-La La Land vote will be split into four giving La La Land a pathway to win.

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad

Will Win: Star Trek Beyond
Could Win: A Man Called Ove
Should Win: Star Trek Beyond

Best Production Design

Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
Passengers
La La Land

Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Arrival
Should Win: La La Land

Best Original Score

Jackie
La La Land
Lion

Moonlight
Passengers

Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Moonlight
Should Win: La La Land

Best Original Song

“Audition,” La La Land
“Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls
“City of Stars,” La La Land
“How Far I’ll Go,” Moana
“The Empty Chair”, Jim: The James Foley Story

Will Win: “City of Stars,” La La Land
Could Win: “How Far I’ll Go,” Moana
Should Win: “City of Stars,” La La Land

Best Sound Editing

Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land

Sully

Will Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Could Win: La La Land
Should Win: Arrival

Commentary: Again in case of a sweep, this can go to La La Land. But typically it goes to film with the most sound effects.

Best Sound Mixing

Arrival
13 Hours
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Arrival
Should Win: La La Land

Best Visual Effects

Kubo and the Two Strings
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story

Will Win: The Jungle Book
Could Win: Kubo and the Two Strings
Should Win: The Jungle Book

Best Animated Feature

Kubo and the Two Strings
My Life As a Zucchini
Moana

The Red Turtle
Zootopia

Will Win: Zootopia
Could Win: Kubo and the Two Strings
Should Win: Kubo and the Two Strings

Best Foreign Film

A Man Called Ove
Land of Mine
Tanna
Toni Erdmann 

The Salesman

Will Win: The Salesman
Could Win: Toni Erdmann 
Should Win: Toni Erdmann

Best Documentary Feature

13th
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
O.J.: Made in America

Life, Animated

Will Win: O.J.: Made in America
Could Win: I Am Not Your Negro
Should Win: O.J.: Made in America

Best Documentary Short Subject

Watani: My Homeland

Best Animated Short Subject

Piper

Best Live Action Short Subject

La Femme et le TGV

Read More: ‘La La Land’ Will Win Best Picture Oscar. Here’s Why.

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