Gautam Anand
Anyone who follows The Cinemholic knows how much we love doing this. And believe it or not, personally, I enjoy making the Oscar predictions more than the Oscar ceremony itself. There’s a famous saying that goes “The pleasure is in the journey and not in the destination”. That’s exactly true in this case; I enjoy the journey of one year of anticipation, agony and pleasure more than the three hours of mostly dull celebration. In any case, by the time the BIG night finally arrives, we already know three-fourth (or more) of the winners. At least if you follow The Cinemaholic you definitely know. (We not very long ago made a record of sorts by predicting 91 out of 108 Oscar nominations correctly.)
This year hasn’t been a particularly interesting year in terms of Oscar race. A part of me is extremely glad that my favorite film of the year is going to win, but then there’s another part of me that is disappointed at how one-sided the whole race has been (despite the fact that six months back I predicted that this would happen). Yes, ‘La La Land’ has been a steamroller all season and it will continue being so on the Oscar night. Basically, it’s ‘La La Land’ vs The Rest. There are only three categories (check below) where the race is extremely tight and can go either in La La Land’s favor or against it. And then there’s Best Actor, which is just impossible to know which way will it go. With that said, let’s directly jump into action:
Best Picture
Arrival
Fences
Hacksaw Ridge
Hell or High Water
Hidden Figures
La La Land
Lion
Manchester by the Sea
Moonlight
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Moonlight
Should Win: La La Land
Commentary: There was a lot written against La La Land once it started emerging as the frontrunner. But nothing deterred it from its path. It has been the frontrunner to win since September. It still is the frontrunner.
Best Director
Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Mel Gibson, Hacksaw Ridge
Denis Villeneuve, Arrival
Kenneth Lonergan, Manchester by the Sea
Will Win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Could Win: Barry Jenkins, Moonlight
Should Win: Damien Chazelle, La La Land
Best Actor
Andrew Garfield, Hacksaw Ridge
Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Denzel Washington, Fences
Ryan Gosling, La La Land
Viggo Mortensen, Captain Fantastic
Will Win: Denzel Washington, Fences
Could Win: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Should Win: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea
Commentary: It is 50-50. As much as I want Casey to win, instinctively I am leaning towards Denzel. Very tight!
Best Actress
Ruth Negga, Loving
Isabelle Hubbert, Elle
Emma Stone, La La Land
Natalie Portman, Jackie
Meryl Streep, Florence Foster Jenkins
Will Win: Emma Stone, La La Land
Could Win: Isabelle Hubbert, Elle
Should Win: Isabelle Hubbert, Elle
Best Supporting Actor
Dev Patel, Lion
Michael Shannon, Nocturnal Animals
Jeff Bridges, Hell or High Water
Lucas Hedges, Manchester by the Sea
Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Will Win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Could Win: Dev Patel, Lion
Should Win: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight
Best Supporting Actress
Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Nicole Kidman, Lion
Octavia Spencer, Hidden Figures
Viola Davis, Fences
Will Win: Viola Davis, Fences
Could Win: Michelle Williams, Manchester by the Sea
Should Win: Naomie Harris, Moonlight
Best Original Screenplay
20th Century Women
Hell or High Water
La La Land
The Lobster
Manchester by the Sea
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Manchester by the Sea
Should Win: Manchester by the Sea
Commentary: This is a tough one. Initially, I wanted to go with Manchester by the Sea, but I don’t think it has gathered a lot of steam. Yes, it was one of three favorites that emerged out of the awards season, but still I think La La Land might nudge past it. Keep an eye on this award. If La La Land wins this, it will end the night with at least 10 awards — if not more.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Arrival
Fences
Hidden Figures
Lion
Moonlight
Will Win: Moonlight
Could Win: Lion
Should Win: Arrival
Best Cinematography
Arrival
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Silence
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Lion
Should Win: La La Land
Best Editing
Arrival
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Hell or High Water
Moonlight
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Arrival
Should Win: La La Land
Best Costume Design
Allied
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Florence Foster Jenkins
Jackie
La La Land
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Jackie
Should Win: Jackie
Commentary: I know many are predicting Jackie to win here, but my logic to pick La La Land is very simple. I think the anti-La La Land vote will be split into four giving La La Land a pathway to win.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
A Man Called Ove
Star Trek Beyond
Suicide Squad
Will Win: Star Trek Beyond
Could Win: A Man Called Ove
Should Win: Star Trek Beyond
Best Production Design
Arrival
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Hail, Caesar!
Passengers
La La Land
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Arrival
Should Win: La La Land
Best Original Score
Jackie
La La Land
Lion
Moonlight
Passengers
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Moonlight
Should Win: La La Land
Best Original Song
“Audition,” La La Land
“Can’t Stop the Feeling,” Trolls
“City of Stars,” La La Land
“How Far I’ll Go,” Moana
“The Empty Chair”, Jim: The James Foley Story
Will Win: “City of Stars,” La La Land
Could Win: “How Far I’ll Go,” Moana
Should Win: “City of Stars,” La La Land
Best Sound Editing
Arrival
Deepwater Horizon
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Sully
Will Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Could Win: La La Land
Should Win: Arrival
Commentary: Again in case of a sweep, this can go to La La Land. But typically it goes to film with the most sound effects.
Best Sound Mixing
Arrival
13 Hours
Hacksaw Ridge
La La Land
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Will Win: La La Land
Could Win: Arrival
Should Win: La La Land
Best Visual Effects
Kubo and the Two Strings
Deepwater Horizon
Doctor Strange
The Jungle Book
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Will Win: The Jungle Book
Could Win: Kubo and the Two Strings
Should Win: The Jungle Book
Best Animated Feature
Kubo and the Two Strings
My Life As a Zucchini
Moana
The Red Turtle
Zootopia
Will Win: Zootopia
Could Win: Kubo and the Two Strings
Should Win: Kubo and the Two Strings
Best Foreign Film
A Man Called Ove
Land of Mine
Tanna
Toni Erdmann
The Salesman
Will Win: The Salesman
Could Win: Toni Erdmann
Should Win: Toni Erdmann
Best Documentary Feature
13th
Fire at Sea
I Am Not Your Negro
O.J.: Made in America
Life, Animated
Will Win: O.J.: Made in America
Could Win: I Am Not Your Negro
Should Win: O.J.: Made in America
Best Documentary Short Subject
Watani: My Homeland
Best Animated Short Subject
Piper
Best Live Action Short Subject
La Femme et le TGV
Read More: ‘La La Land’ Will Win Best Picture Oscar. Here’s Why.
