Gautam Anand
Predicting the Oscars is always fun. Six months of anticipation and guessing games will finally come to an end on Sunday. Alas! While I am looking forward to the ceremony, I can’t say I am particularly excited about it this year. The reason for that is pretty simple. I already know who will win in most of the categories. Oh no! Not because I am a clairvoyant or some Oscar insider. It just has been that kind of awards season: predictable and boring.
The award season actually started on a pretty exciting note. You had five films competing for Best Picture prize just a few months back. ‘Parasite’, ‘1917’, ‘The Irishman’, ‘Joker’ and ‘Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’. But then the Guilds started handing out their prizes and it immediately became evident that ‘1917’ is the frontrunner. The World War 1 film has both PGA and DGA in its bag. That almost guarantees its Best Picture win on Sunday. The only film that has the potential to upset ‘1917’ is ‘Parasite’, which managed to win SAG by trumping films like ‘The Irishman’ and ‘Once Upon a Time in Hollywood’.
To be honest, I would be extremely happy if ‘Parasite’ wins. With the preferential ballot where voters rank Best Picture nominees instead of marking one winner, there’s a reasonable chance that the South Korean film can pull off an upset. But can it really though? It is foreign language film, after all. Some may argue that since 20% of Academy members are foreign nationals, ‘Parasite’ actually has more than fair shot at winning Best Picture. I find that argument credible, but I am little skeptical because of Roma’s failure to win Best Picture last year.
Outside of Best Picture race, all the acting categories are pretty much sewn up. There’s no room for any surprises in any of the acting categories. Best Director is again a fight between Sam Mendes for ‘1917’ and Bong Joon Ho for ‘Parasite’. In the below the line categories, ‘1917’ is going to fare very well too. Overall, irrespective of which film wins the Best Picture prize, ‘1917’ will end the night with most number of wins.
Now to the actual predictions. One quick note here. I have only mentioned “Could Win” for categories that I think are closely contested.
Best Picture
“Ford v Ferrari”
“The Irishman”
“Jojo Rabbit”
“Joker”
“Little Women”
“Marriage Story”
“1917”
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
“Parasite”
Will Win: “1917”
Could Win: “Parasite”
Should Win: “Parasite”
Best Director
Martin Scorsese (“The Irishman”)
Todd Phillips (“Joker”)
Sam Mendes (“1917”)
Quentin Tarantino (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”)
Bong Joon Ho (“Parasite”)
Will Win: Sam Mendes (“1917”)
Could Win: Bong Joon Ho (“Parasite”)
Should Win: Bong Joon Ho (“Parasite”)
Best Actor
Antonio Banderas (“Pain and Glory”)
Leonardo DiCaprio (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”)
Adam Driver (“Marriage Story”)
Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker”)
Jonathan Pryce (“The Two Popes”)
Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker”)
Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker”)
Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo (“Harriet”)
Scarlett Johansson (“Marriage Story”)
Saorise Ronan (“Little Women”)
Charlize Theron (“Bombshell”)
Renee Zellweger (“Judy”)
Will Win: Renee Zellweger (“Judy”)
Should Win: Saorise Ronan (“Little Women”)
Best Supporting Actor
Tom Hanks (“A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”)
Anthony Hopkins (“The Two Popes”)
Al Pacino (“The Irishman”)
Joe Pesci (“The Irishman”)
Brad Pitt (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”)
Will Win: Brad Pitt (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”)
Should Win: Brad Pitt (“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”)
Best Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates, (“Richard Jewell”)
Laura Dern (“Marriage Story”)
Scarlett Johansson (“Jojo Rabbit”)
Florence Pugh (“Little Women”)
Margot Robbie (“Bombshell”)
Will Win: Laura Dern (“Marriage Story”)
Should Win: Margot Robbie (“Bombshell”)
Best Adapted Screenplay
“Jojo Rabbit”
“The Irishman”
“The Two Popes”
“Little Women”
“Joker”
Will Win: “Jojo Rabbit”
Could Win: “Little Women”
Should Win: “The Irishman”
Best Original Screenplay
“Knives Out”
“Marriage Story”
“1917”
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
“Parasite”
Will Win: “Parasite”
Could Win: “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Should Win: “Parasite”
Best Animated Feature
“How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World””
“I Lost My Body”
“Klaus”
“Missing Link”
“Toy Story 4”
Will Win: “Toy Story 4”
Could Win: “Klaus”
Should Win: “I Lost My Body”
Best International Feature Film
“Corpus Christi”
“Honeyland”
“Les Miserables”
“Pain and Glory”
“Parasite”
Will Win: “Parasite”
Should Win: “Parasite”
Best Documentary
“American Factory”
“The Cave”
“Edge of Democracy”
“For Sama”
“Honeyland”
Will Win: “American Factory”
Could Win: “For Sama”
Should Win: “American Factory”
Best Cinematography
“The Irishman”
“Joker”
“The Lighthouse”
“1917”
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Will Win: “1917”
Should Win: “The Lighthouse”
Best Costume Design
“The Irishman”
“Jojo Rabbit”
“Joker”
“Little Women”
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Will Win: “Little Women”
Could Win: “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Should Win: “Little Women”
Best Film Editing
“Ford vs. Ferrari”
“The Irishman”
“Jojo Rabbit”
“Joker”
“Parasite”
Will Win: “Ford vs. Ferrari”
Could Win: “Parasite”
Should Win: “Parasite”
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
“Bombshell”
“Joker”
“Judy”
“Maleficent: Mistress of Evil”
“1917”
Will Win: “Bombshell”
Should Win: “Bombshell”
Best Original Score
“Joker”
“Little Women”
“Marriage Story”
“1917”
“Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker”
Will Win: “Joker”
Could Win: “1917”
Should Win: “Joker”
Best Original Song
“(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” (Elton John, “Rocketman”)
“Im Standing With You (“Breakthrough”)
“Into the Unknown” (Frozen 2)
“Stand Up” (Harriet)
“I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” (Toy Story 4)
Will Win: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” (Elton John, “Rocketman”)
Could Win: “I Can’t Let You Throw Yourself Away” (Toy Story 4)
Should Win: “(I’m Gonna) Love Me Again” (Elton John, “Rocketman”)
Best Production Design
“The Irishman”
“Jojo Rabbit”
“1917”
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
“Parasite”
Will Win: “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Could Win: “1917”
Should Win: “Parasite”
Best Sound Editing
“Ford v Ferrari”
“Joker”
“1917”
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
“Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker’
Will Win: “1917”
Could Win: “Ford v Ferrari”
Should Win: “1917”
Best Sound Mixing
“Ad Astra”
“Ford vs. Ferrari”
“Joker”
“1917”
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Will Win: “1917”
Could Win: “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”
Should Win: “1917”
Best Visual Effects
“Avengers: Endgame”
“The Irishman”
“The Lion King”
“1917”
“Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker”
Will Win: “1917”
Could Win: “Avengers: Endgame”
Should Win: “1917”
Best Documentary Short
“In the Absence”
“Learning to Skateboard in a War Zone If You’re a Girl”
“Life Overtakes Me”
“St. Louis Superman”
“Walk Run Cha-Cha”
Will Win: “Learning to Skateboard in a War Zone If You’re a Girl”
Could Win: “St. Louis Superman”
Should Win: “St. Louis Superman”
Best Animated Short Film
“Daughter”
“Hair Love”
“Kitbull”
“Memorable”
“Sister”
Will Win: “Hair Love”
Could Win: “Kitbull”
Should Win: “Hair Love”
Best Live Action Short
“Brotherhood”
“Nefta Football Club”
“The Neighbor’s Window”
“Saria”
“A Sister”
Will Win: “The Neighbor’s Window”
Could Win: “Brotherhood”
Should Win:“The Neighbor’s Window”
