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Post Oscar Nominations Analysis, and Why We Are the Best Oscar Predictors on Internet

January 14, 2016
5 min read

So, the Oscar nominations are out. If you haven’t already checked out the nominations or want to refresh your memory, you can do it here. Before I move into doing a post nomination analysis, let me take this opportunity to do a little bit of back-patting. As most of the readers here already know that we, here at The Cinemaholic, are heavily into Oscar predictions business. We take it seriously and we are damn proud of what we do. Yes, Oscar predicting is not some scientific discovery that’s going to change the world. But the point is not how pointless it is. The point is if you are a movie fan, you will realize the importance of Oscars. And I don’t know about everyone else, but for me, Oscars are not about rewarding the best movies; it is about shedding light, making us more aware. If not for Oscars, many of the best movies may get lost in the rumble.

With that said, I am also a very competitive person. I like to win. I like to be the best in what I do. Therefore, when I took up Oscar predicting, I knew I wanted to the best in business. Many of you might scoff at me for saying this, but the truth is, making correct Oscar predictions require a lot of research and more importantly, a lot of common sense. More often than not, you have to put aside your love for a movie or a performance and be objective about everything. For e.g. I loved the movie ‘Steve Jobs’. But I knew, it won’t gain much Oscar traction. Therefore, I didn’t predict it to get a Best Picture nomination in spite of it being one of my top 10 movies of the year. Though at times, and if you are lucky, your favorite movie also happens to be a strong Best Picture contender like ‘The Revenant’ and ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’ this year.

Coming to how well we did this year in predicting the Oscar nominations ? Well, I am glad to report that once again, for the fourth year in a row, we predicted more than 85 nominations correctly; this year our score was 86 (out of 106).[We did predict Shorts categories separately and we managed to score 98 out of 121 overall ] And again, no other publication site on internet correctly predicted as many nominations as we did (the second highest was Variety, which managed a score of 82). So, cheers to us. And cheers to the readers who diligently follow us and trust us.

Now, let’s get back to business. What do today’s nominations mean ? Is ‘The Revenant’ going to win Best Picture ? Is Leonardo Di Caprio going to win Best Actor ? Let’s answer your questions one by one.

1.If Alejandro G.Inarritu hadn’t won Best Picture (for ‘Birdman’) last year, he would have won for ‘The Revenant’ this year. So, at this moment, chances of ‘The Revenant’ winning Best Picture are slim. But never say never. We will have to wait for industry guilds like PGA and DGA to announce their winners, only then we will get a clear picture.

2. So what wins, if not ‘The Revenant’ ? The short answer is: we don’t know yet. The long answer is ‘Spotlight’, if it wins SAG Best Ensemble and PGA. If not, it can be anybody’s game. And yes, it could be even ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’ or ‘The Big Short’.

3. Leonardo DiCaprio will finally have his Oscar trophy. Yes, you read that right. This year, he is locked, sealed and done deal. Nobody can take away the Oscar from him this year. But we already predicted this one month back. 

4. Sylvester Stallone is not as sure a thing as Leo, but he is still front-runner to win Best Supporting Actor. Yes, another due actor may finally get his due. Though, he might face a little competition from Mark Rylance. Still, I feel, he wins in the end.

5. ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’ may not win Best Picture, but it will end the Oscar night with most number of wins. That’s true — unless ‘The Revenant’ makes a sweep, which is unlikely. ‘Mad Max’ may end up the night with at least 5 wins and as many as 8. Which all ? Best Visual Effects, Best Sound Editing, Best Sound Mixing, Best Make up and Hairstyling, Best Production Design. It can also win Best Directing, Best Cinematography and Best Editing

6. Which other winners are locks ? ‘Room’ did surprisingly well by scoring Best Picture and Best Directing nominations. That tells me, it has quite a strong support within the Academy. Therefore, Brie Larson looks like a surefire winner for Best Actress. Best Foreign Language is going to ‘Son of Saul’. That’s also guaranteed. And so is ‘Inside Out’ for Best Animated Film. Best Score will, in all likelihood, go the legendary composer Ennio Morricone for ‘The Hateful Eight’.

So, there you go. I have listed down almost all the possibilities. Keep following us for further Oscar updates.

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